Electric demand grows permanently. The generation plants already installed are being removed due to obsolescence and this leads to the need to constantly incorporate new generation projects.
Due to the size of the projects involved, these investments should generally be planned more than three years in advance. The planning of the systems is usually done by projecting the demand for the next decades and simulating the behavior of the system incorporating different types of generation (wind, solar, thermal, hydroelectric, etc.) to supply the demand increases and the withdrawal of generating existing units.
To carry out this task, in the same platform there is a powerful optimizer called OddFace in which the user can specify which are the investment alternatives and obtain the optimal investment plan.
With the Room that represents the system of the next decades it is possible to simulate the statistical behavior of the system in the set of possible futures (realization of stochastic processes) and obtain different indicators.
As an example, Fig.1 shows the expected generation by (MW-weekly means) for a possible expansion of the Uruguayan system in the horizon 2021-2047. Fig.2 shows for the same room, the expected annual marginal cost that is exceeded with probabilities of 30 and 70%. These examples are included for the sole purpose of transmitting to the reader the type of result that can be obtained when performing the simulations.
Fig. 1: Example of long-term simulation. Generation by source Uruguay 2021-2047.
Fig. 2: Example of statistical indicator. Average annual marginal cost that is exceeded with probabilities of 30 and 70%.
An example of application of SimSEE in long-term analysis can be seen on the website of the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining (MIEM) of Uruguay here